Mike Aresco, commissioner of the AAC, poses with Louisville's Russ Smith and the tournament MVP trophy after Smith and the Cardinals defeated the Connecticut Huskies in the conference title game Saturday night in Memphis, Tenn. (Joe Murphy/Getty Images)
The debut season of the American Athletic Conference has been a notable one for the other half of the Big East divorce. While the league was top-heavy — the top five teams were 46-4 against the bottom five during the regular-season — teams like Louisville and Cincinnati were dominant. So what is the outlook for those teams headed to the tournament? Here’s our breakdown:
LOUISVILLE
Predicted Seed: No. 2/3Strength: Offense
At times during the regular season, we wondered whether the Cardinals had enough to duplicate last year’s title run. But since Jan. 9, Louisville is 14-2 and has surged offensively. The Cardinals won 12 of those games by double digits, and their average margin of victory in those games was 29.1 points.
Weakness: Interior presence
One of the big keys to Louisville’s success last season was having Gorgui Dieng on the back end of the defense as a backstop to the press. Well, we’ve seen times this season where if you get physical on the Cardinals (like Cincinnati did in its two games), you can disrupt what Louisville is doing.
CINCINNATI
Predicted seed: No. 3/4Strength: Toughness
Few teams blend athleticism and basketball IQ like Mick Cronin’s. What makes the Bearcats so good is they rarely beat themselves, and they stay poised when the game is going against them. Case in point came two weeks ago, when Cincy withstood a complete game from Rutgers and ended up
winning by four in the final minutes.
Weakness: Scoring
As is the case with most physical, defensive-minded teams, Cincinnati occasionally struggles to score. It entered the weekend averaging 69.1 points — which ranked 229th in the country. If Sean Kilpatrick isn’t making shots, this team has a tendency to go into deer-in-headlights mode and forget the game plan.
SMU
Predicted Seed: No. 10/11Strength: Coach Larry Brown
It’s kind of why he’s there, right? SMU isn’t paying Brown to be a figurehead, he’s there to bring his basketball acumen to the sideline. That’s what we’ve seen this season as the Mustangs have finally turned their program around in his second season on the bench.
Weakness: Coach Larry Brown
The flip side to Brown’s presence on the sideline is this: The last time he coached in the NCAA Tournament was the 1988 national championship game with Kansas. Yes, he’s been in NBA Finals and playoffs and big games in the pros since then, but the tournament, with college players, is a different animal. And much different from when he was here last.
MEMPHIS
Predicted seed: No. 4/5STRENGTH: Athleticism
Every year, the one thing that separates (and seduces) you about Memphis is its athleticism. Players like Joe Jackson, Michael Dixon and Shaq Goodwin are as talented a group as any in the conference. Add freshman Austin Nichols (9.1 ppg) into the mix and you’ve got a solid nucleus.
WEAKNESS: Transition defense
This has always been an issue for Josh Pastner’s team since he took over, but especially so this season. If the Tigers draw a team that doesn’t mind playing up-and-down the floor like Memphis does — and can do it better on the defensive end — the Tigers could be
in for another quick exit.
CONNECTICUT
Predicted seed: No. 4/5STRENGTH: Shabazz Napier
How many guards in the country under 6-4 lead their teams in points, rebounds and assists per game? That’s what makes Napier so special, despite his smallish size. He does it all for the Huskies and has a knack for making
big shots in clutch situations.
WEAKNESS: Secondary scorers
The problem with Napier being so good is that the rest of the Huskies’ lineup hasn’t figured out what to do when he’s not on his game. Witness the Louisville blowout two weeks ago, when Napier scored nine points on 2-of-13 shooting and the Huskies lost by 33 points.
LOUISVILLE
Predicted Seed: No. 2/3Strength: Offense
At times during the regular season, we wondered whether the Cardinals had enough to duplicate last year’s title run. But since Jan. 9, Louisville is 14-2 and has surged offensively. The Cardinals won 12 of those games by double digits, and their average margin of victory in those games was 29.1 points.
Weakness: Interior presence
One of the big keys to Louisville’s success last season was having Gorgui Dieng on the back end of the defense as a backstop to the press. Well, we’ve seen times this season where if you get physical on the Cardinals (like Cincinnati did in its two games), you can disrupt what Louisville is doing.
CINCINNATI
Predicted seed: No. 3/4Strength: Toughness
Few teams blend athleticism and basketball IQ like Mick Cronin’s. What makes the Bearcats so good is they rarely beat themselves, and they stay poised when the game is going against them. Case in point came two weeks ago, when Cincy withstood a complete game from Rutgers and ended up
winning by four in the final minutes.
Weakness: Scoring
As is the case with most physical, defensive-minded teams, Cincinnati occasionally struggles to score. It entered the weekend averaging 69.1 points — which ranked 229th in the country. If Sean Kilpatrick isn’t making shots, this team has a tendency to go into deer-in-headlights mode and forget the game plan.
SMU
Predicted Seed: No. 10/11Strength: Coach Larry Brown
It’s kind of why he’s there, right? SMU isn’t paying Brown to be a figurehead, he’s there to bring his basketball acumen to the sideline. That’s what we’ve seen this season as the Mustangs have finally turned their program around in his second season on the bench.
Weakness: Coach Larry Brown
The flip side to Brown’s presence on the sideline is this: The last time he coached in the NCAA Tournament was the 1988 national championship game with Kansas. Yes, he’s been in NBA Finals and playoffs and big games in the pros since then, but the tournament, with college players, is a different animal. And much different from when he was here last.
MEMPHIS
Predicted seed: No. 4/5STRENGTH: Athleticism
Every year, the one thing that separates (and seduces) you about Memphis is its athleticism. Players like Joe Jackson, Michael Dixon and Shaq Goodwin are as talented a group as any in the conference. Add freshman Austin Nichols (9.1 ppg) into the mix and you’ve got a solid nucleus.
WEAKNESS: Transition defense
This has always been an issue for Josh Pastner’s team since he took over, but especially so this season. If the Tigers draw a team that doesn’t mind playing up-and-down the floor like Memphis does — and can do it better on the defensive end — the Tigers could be
in for another quick exit.
CONNECTICUT
Predicted seed: No. 4/5STRENGTH: Shabazz Napier
How many guards in the country under 6-4 lead their teams in points, rebounds and assists per game? That’s what makes Napier so special, despite his smallish size. He does it all for the Huskies and has a knack for making
big shots in clutch situations.
WEAKNESS: Secondary scorers
The problem with Napier being so good is that the rest of the Huskies’ lineup hasn’t figured out what to do when he’s not on his game. Witness the Louisville blowout two weeks ago, when Napier scored nine points on 2-of-13 shooting and the Huskies lost by 33 points.
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